Predictions for 2012 - Real Possibilities

Will 2012 bring the Devastation or Doomsday that some Predict?

Feb 24, 2010
Don Kaiser

Trinity Test - The First Man-Made Atomic Blast - Wikipedia

The year twenty twelve has been portrayed by some as a time of Catastrophic, Cataclysmic, Apocalyptic Crisis for the World and Human Civilization.

An approximately 5000-year cycle defined by an ancient Mayan calendar will end in the year 2012. To some people, the end of this cycle translates to Doomsday or the end of the world and humanity. The History Channel has perpetuated this idea by airing various programs such as Decoding the Past: Mayan Doomsday Prophecy, 2012, End of Days, The Last Days on Earth, Seven Signs of the Apocalypse, and Nostradamus 2012.

And just last year, the Discovery Channel showed 2012 Apocalypse, which investigated several scientific bases for the possibility that super volcanoes, solar storms, earthquakes, or other cataclysmic natural events might occur in the year 2012.

Cycles of Time

Ironically, both the catastrophic predictions and their possible scientific explanations are based on cycles. The Mayan calendar, or any other calendar, is simply a device that defines some time period or cycle. Most calendars define the time for the moon to revolve around the earth (1 month) or for the earth to revolve around the sun (1 year) as the basic cycle. Many people celebrate the end of each past year and the beginning of each new year depending on which calendar they use.

Regarding the Mayan calendar, celebrating the end of one 5000-year cycle and the beginning of another would seem to be more appropriate than predicting the end of the world. In fact, cycles are the epitome of continuity, progression, rebirth, new hope, and even eternity or infinity. So why all the hype about the end of the world?

Natural Cycles

As it happens, scientists have identified certain natural cycles that threaten the world and humanity as we know it. The cyclical behavior of sunspots, comets and asteroids orbiting the sun, mega-volcanoes, earthquakes, and other natural phenomena could produce doomsday scenarios. But is it likely that one of these events will occur in the year 2012?

Consider an ancient mega-volcano that today is actually known as Yellowstone National Park in the state of Wyoming, USA. There are several other mega-volcanoes in the world and the last time one erupted was about 74,000 years ago at Toba, Indonesia. It was pretty bad, but obviously didn't end the world. Scientific evidence suggests that the Yellowstone mega volcano has erupted approximately every 600,000 years on the average. The last time it erupted was about 640,000 years ago so it's apparently due to erupt again. But in 2012; who can say?

Similarly, the natural cycles for solar activity, astronomical bodies, earthquakes, and other potential disasters occur on such huge geological time scales that predicting when they will actually take place is difficult.

Other Possibilities for 2012

Global Temperature

If we must focus on 2012, what's the most likely and predictable event that could account for any kind of world devastation in the year 2012? Of course this also has to do with cycles. The average global temperature and its cycling over the past 750,000 years is based primarily on the quantitative measurements of certain compounds in ice core samples. These measurements are substantiated by the existence of all things, cycles.

For example, day-night temperature cycling can be explained by the 1-day cycle for the earth's rotation on its axis. The 11-year and 206-year temperature cycles are substantiated by the solar variability and sunspot activity cycles. The observed 21,000-year temperature cycle is substantiated by the precession of the equinoxes or the combined effects of the earth's tilt and it's elliptical orbit around the sun.

The 41,000-year temperature cycle can be explained by the cycle for the wobbling of the earth's axis (plus or minus 1.5 degrees tilt) relative to its orbit around the sun. Finally, the observed 100,000-year temperature cycle which corresponds to the ice ages can be accounted for by the cycle of eccentricity, or variations in the shape of the earth's elliptical orbit around the sun.

Atmospheric Gases

The famous Keeling curve illustrates the annual increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) since 1958. The measurements are so accurate that even the seasonal decreases in total CO2 caused by its uptake by new plant growth each spring and summer in the northern hemisphere is readily detected. This seasonal variation in atmospheric CO2 represents yet another cycle in our natural world.

Interestingly, the amplitude of this seasonal cycle has been fairly regular each year since 1958 while the total atmospheric CO2 has increased from 315 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 1958 to 385 ppmv in June of 2008. This increase has been attributed primarily to the burning of fossil fuels by people. While some pre-industrial periods in the earth's history had even higher atmospheric CO2 levels, the effects of anthropogenic CO2, chlorofluorocarbons, other contaminants, and the depletion of oxygen on the complex chemistry and physics of the atmosphere are unknown.

Nuclear Chain Reactions

Some nuclear scientists involved with the Manhattan Project considered the possibility that their first atomic blast might ignite a chain reaction in the atmosphere. Their studies concluded that the process was not impossible but extremely unlikely. However, is it possible that anthropogenic changes to the atmosphere might provide some catalyst for its ignition by one of today's much more powerful nuclear blasts?

Fuel-Burning Machines

The late American writer Lewis Mumford said: "The cycle of the machine is now coming to an end. Man has learned much in the hard discipline and the shrewd, unflinching grasp of practical possibilities that the machine has provided in the last three centuries: but we can no more continue to live in the world of the machine than we could live successfully on the barren surface of the moon."

If a likely source for world-wide catastrophe in the year 2012 must be chosen, it would seem that the potential for a man-made environmental crisis due to pollution of the land, fresh water, oceans, and the atmosphere represents the most likely doomsday scenario.

Prevention of Cataclysmic Events

Fortunately, unlike mega-volcanoes, earthquakes, sunspots, astronomical bodies slamming into the earth, or the catastrophic predictions based on ancient calendars, religions, or folklore, environmental pollution is a problem that can be prevented. We can actually preserve our beautiful green planet and prevent it from becoming a barren lunar landscape. Hopefully, we'll all be celebrating the beginning and end of just another cycle in 2012.

Sources

James Hershberg (1993), James B. Conant: Harvard to Hiroshima and the Making of the Nuclear Age. 948 pp.

C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf (October 2004). "Atmospheric CO2 from Continuous Air Samples at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, U.S.A.".

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory .

Ice Core Studies Prove CO2 Is Not the Powerful Climate Driver Climate Alarmists Make It Out to Be; CO2 Science

Comments

Feb 25, 2010 8:24 AM

Guest :

"2012: Time for Change"
projects a radical alternative to apocalyptic doom and gloom. Directed by Emmy Award nominee Joao Amorim, the film follows journalist Daniel Pinchbeck, author of the bestselling 2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl, on a quest for a new paradigm that integrates the archaic wisdom of tribal cultures with the scientific method. As conscious agents of evolution, we can redesign post-industrial society on ecological principles to make a world that works for all. Rather than breakdown and barbarism, 2012 will herald the birth of a regenerative planetary culture, where collaboration replaces competition, where exploration of psyche and spirit becomes the new cutting edge, replacing the sterile materialism that has pushed our world to the brink.

Interviews with design scientists, anthropologists, physicists such as Dean Radin, Barbara Marx Hubbard, John Todd and Paul Stamets and celebrities such as Sting, Ellen Page and Gilberto Gil.

http://www.2012timeforchange.com/

Jan 31, 2011 10:25 AM

Guest :

Here's the story. . .
Back in the day, like around 5 BC. through 1200 AD, the ancient Maya Indian civilizations of Mexico, Guatemala, Belize developed calendars to keep track of celestial movements and time passage. Their calendar system used tools that measured shadows, and watched the horizon to trace the movement of the stars, sun, and planets. Their calendar was called The Long Calendar. Let me tell you why it's long: because it lasts over 5000 years! After 5,125 years, it resets to zero (0). The current long count began in 3114 BC. And it will end very soon. In fact, it will end on December 21, 2012.

Dum de dum dum (the sounds of doom).

The Maya predicted that the world as we know it would have a cataclysmic change because each time the Long Count Calendar ends, something crazy happens. They believed in each age (each 5000 years) the gods try to create obedient creatures. The "First Age" began with the creation of the Earth, and its plants and animals. Unfortunately, because they couldn't speak, the birds and animals were unable to pay homage to the gods and were destroyed. In the Second and Third Ages the gods created humans of mud and then wood, but these also failed to please and were wiped out.
We are currently in the Fourth and Final Age, the age of humans. But how are we doing? That remains to be seen. There are a lot of environmental problems, wars, and other events that may seem to lead to our destruction, but combined, these don't seem like they'd lead to the end of the world.
Also - since the Mayans were very connected to astronomy, it's important to note the Solstice connection. On the winter solstice on December 21, 2012, the sun will be aligned with the center of the Milky Way Galaxy for the first time in about 26,000 years. Some believe that this will disrupt whatever normal energy usually streams to the earth from the center of the Milky Way. Hmmm. It's all supposed to go down at 11:11 pm Universal Time on 12/21/12. But I don't think the Maya meant it literally. A lot of things could happen. Or nothing at all. Or maybe it is a chance for spiritual change. Kind of like an environmental wake up call.

The predictions are of total devastation! According to some forecasts, entire cities will be destroyed by enormous tsunamis, earthquakes and Category 5 hurricanes; meteors will rain down fiery death from heaven; and human history will come to a violent end.

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